In San Francisco, the Asking Price Is Now Just a Starting Bid.

If you've felt like every San Francisco listing turns into a bidding war, it's not your imagination. The San Francisco Chronicle dug into the Compass data this week, and the numbers are eye-popping. (I spend my days in these offers, and even I did a double take.)

The story that says it all

A longtime broker was helping a buyer bid on a luxury condo in Cow Hollow last week. The asking price was $3.8 million, so they added half a million dollars. They lost to an offer for well over $5 million. The broker's take: "If you look at the recent comparable sales, you almost have to throw them out the window."

The numbers worth knowing

1. Nearly 92% of single-family homes in San Francisco sold above asking in September, the highest percentage on record (per Compass).
2. Nearly 3 in 4 condos sold above asking in the first three weeks of October.
3. The average single-family home sold for nearly 30% over list in September 2026, more than double the 13% margin of September 2025.
4. Inventory is razor thin. Just 240 single-family homes were on the market at the end of September, the lowest total for the month since at least 2020.
5. The median single-family sale price is nearly $2.6 million through Oct. 20, up from $1.9 million in October 2025 and the highest median since at least 2020. (The Chronicle notes part of that spike is probably a shift toward luxury homes in the mix of what's selling.)
6. San Francisco is a rarity. A Redfin analysis found SF is one of just six major U.S. metro areas considered a "seller's market," while much of the country is cooling.

Why pricing has become a guessing game

Sellers have long "priced to entice," setting the asking price low to spark competition. This year, agents quoted in the article say some sellers have priced about a third below market value for "auction-style" sales. One agent put the challenge plainly: "We are pricing properties on aged data. And aged data in this market is three months."

Another broker: "We don't really know where value is, and so the safe thing to do is to price low and just see what happens."

My straight-talk take

Here's what I tell my clients:

1. Buyers: the list price is a starting line, not a finish line. Work out your true maximum number BEFORE you walk into an open house, and get pre-underwritten so you can move fast. (Mortgage rates are now above 7%, so run the monthly payment, not just the price.)
2. Don't rely on old comps alone. Ask your agent for the very latest sales, and for context on what the home actually sold for versus what it listed for.
3. Sellers: a low list price can work, but it's a strategy, not a guarantee. The right approach depends on your home, your street and the moment. Prep, presentation and timing still matter. This is where my construction and renovation background earns its keep.
4. Don't give up. As that same broker says, it can be very disappointing to find you weren't even close. "But as a buyer you can't give up." Agreed. The right home is out there, and I've got a guy (or gal) for just about everything along the way: inspections, contractors, you name it.

A caveat, because I'm not a cheerleader for hype: these are citywide numbers, and every neighborhood and every block behaves differently. Starter and mid-tier homes tend to have more transparent pricing than luxury homes, which are attracting the most competition right now.

If you're ready to buy or sell in San Francisco and want a clear, numbers-first strategy for this market, I'd love to hear from you.

Read the full story at the San Francisco Chronicle: 9 in 10 S.F. homes are now selling for more than asking — sometimes much more (Oct. 26, 2026).

Cheers, 🌁 Lisa Z