San Francisco's Market Has a New Kind of Confidence

If you've been watching San Francisco real estate this summer, you've probably noticed something: the energy has shifted. Condos are moving again, buyers are competing hard, and there's a genuine sense of momentum in this city that hasn't been here in a while.

Let's break down what's actually happening.

Condos Are Finally Having Their Moment

For most of the post-pandemic recovery, condos were the market's laggard. Single-family homes bounced back first, but condos took longer to find their footing. That's changing. In July, 276 condos sold across the city — a 25% jump year-over-year — and the median sale price climbed to $1.25 million, up 14% over the same period last year.

Why now? With the median home price in San Francisco sitting above $2 million and inventory still tight, more buyers are realizing that condos offer a more attainable path into this market. One thing worth keeping an eye on: new financing rules from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac took effect August 3, and they could make condo mortgages a bit more complicated going forward. I'll be watching closely to see how that affects the momentum we're seeing right now.

List Prices? Take Them With a Grain of Salt

Here's something I tell my clients constantly: in this market, the list price is really just a starting point for the conversation. Recent data shows San Francisco buyers are paying, on average, 26% over asking — which in this city can mean bidding hundreds of thousands over list.

I love how one local agent put it recently: list price becomes almost beside the point when "buyers are the ones determining the value on a day-to-day basis." That's exactly what we're seeing on the ground. Sellers aren't necessarily setting the market anymore — buyers are.

Even the Mayor Is Part of the Story

It might sound unusual, but Mayor Daniel Lurie's constant, upbeat presence on social media has become a real factor in how outside investors view San Francisco. Confidence is contagious, and it turns out that matters just as much in real estate as fundamentals do. A recent poll found that 64% of residents now believe the city is headed in the right direction — up from 43% last year and just 22% the year before that.

That renewed confidence is showing up in the numbers, too. Since last June, roughly $1.3 billion worth of multifamily properties have changed hands in San Francisco — more than 2022, 2023, and 2024 combined. Institutional investors who once sat on the sidelines are stepping back in, betting that San Francisco's combination of rent growth, limited housing supply, and renewed optimism makes it one of the more compelling markets in the country right now.

What This Means If You're Buying or Selling

This is a market that rewards preparation. If you're a buyer, come in ready to move quickly and with a real understanding of where the competition actually lands, not just what the listing says. If you're a seller, especially of a condo, this is a genuinely good window to be on the market.

As always, I'm happy to walk you through what this means for your specific situation — whether that's a condo in the city or a bigger investment play. San Francisco is telling a good story right now, and I want you to be part of it.